<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[Sonia Bouanane | Co-founder @ Obviable]]></title><description><![CDATA[Mastering SaaS retention through data-driven predictive workflows.]]></description><link>https://soniabouanane.substack.com</link><image><url>https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hZ3M!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe44cc579-6955-45cd-aa33-1125e82184df_230x230.png</url><title>Sonia Bouanane | Co-founder @ Obviable</title><link>https://soniabouanane.substack.com</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 18:19:02 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://soniabouanane.substack.com/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[Sonia Bouanane]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[soniabouanane@substack.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[soniabouanane@substack.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[Sonia Bouanane]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[Sonia Bouanane]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[soniabouanane@substack.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[soniabouanane@substack.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[Sonia Bouanane]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[Why So Few SaaS Companies Act on the First Signs of Customer Disengagement]]></title><description><![CDATA[Why So Few SaaS Companies Act on the First Signs of Customer Disengagement]]></description><link>https://soniabouanane.substack.com/p/why-so-few-saas-companies-act-on</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://soniabouanane.substack.com/p/why-so-few-saas-companies-act-on</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Sonia Bouanane]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 05 May 2026 14:16:46 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jbfT!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd05921d-f638-47bf-b4ec-e91dc475bd5f_720x720.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p><em>Reading from France? Catch the French version on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/soniabouanane_churn-mrr-revops-activity-7457406306069442560-DNxc?utm_source=share&amp;utm_medium=member_desktop&amp;rcm=ACoAAAbBbJAB3oy8hIPMoeiscOuTmaZVvgUKJuI">LinkedIn </a>here.</em></p><p><em>We are <strong>Sonia and Simon, co-founders of <a href="http://www.obviable.com">Obviable</a>. </strong>We help subscription SaaS companies detect weak churn signals before they turn into losses.</em></p><p>I went through the content published across the largest RevOps and VP Ops communities.</p><p>The result: barely 18% of posts tackle retention.</p><p>Which is worth sitting with for a moment. Because the &#8220;Revenue&#8221; in RevOps means total revenue. Not just new logos. Not just pipeline. Everything &#8212; including what you already have and need to keep.</p><p>So how do you explain the fact that retention keeps getting treated as a nice-to-have, while acquisition absorbs most of the energy, tooling, and organizational attention?</p><p>I see four structural reasons.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jbfT!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd05921d-f638-47bf-b4ec-e91dc475bd5f_720x720.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jbfT!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd05921d-f638-47bf-b4ec-e91dc475bd5f_720x720.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jbfT!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd05921d-f638-47bf-b4ec-e91dc475bd5f_720x720.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jbfT!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd05921d-f638-47bf-b4ec-e91dc475bd5f_720x720.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jbfT!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd05921d-f638-47bf-b4ec-e91dc475bd5f_720x720.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jbfT!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd05921d-f638-47bf-b4ec-e91dc475bd5f_720x720.png" width="720" height="720" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/bd05921d-f638-47bf-b4ec-e91dc475bd5f_720x720.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:720,&quot;width&quot;:720,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:137265,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/i/196546246?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd05921d-f638-47bf-b4ec-e91dc475bd5f_720x720.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jbfT!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd05921d-f638-47bf-b4ec-e91dc475bd5f_720x720.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jbfT!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd05921d-f638-47bf-b4ec-e91dc475bd5f_720x720.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jbfT!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd05921d-f638-47bf-b4ec-e91dc475bd5f_720x720.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jbfT!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd05921d-f638-47bf-b4ec-e91dc475bd5f_720x720.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><h3>1. The slow-danger bias</h3><p>An empty pipeline screams.</p><p>Churn climbing 0.2% per month whispers.</p><p>And as a general rule, what doesn&#8217;t make noise feels less urgent &#8212; right up until the moment it quietly starts threatening profitability. By then, the easy intervention window has usually closed.</p><p>We&#8217;re wired to respond to immediate, visible threats. A collapsing pipeline triggers an emergency all-hands. A slowly eroding retention rate gets a line in the board deck &#8212; if it gets anything at all.</p><p>The danger is real either way. But only one of them feels urgent in the moment.</p><p></p><h3>2. The ownership problem</h3><p>On the Sales side, accountability is crystal clear. You know who gets the bonus when a deal closes &#8212; and who feels the heat when it doesn&#8217;t.</p><p>On the retention side, it&#8217;s almost always murky. The topic floats between CS, Product, Marketing, and RevOps. Everyone touches it. Nobody fully owns it.</p><p>And when no one truly carries the subject, there&#8217;s no real priority, no dedicated budget, and no consistent execution. It becomes everyone&#8217;s secondary concern &#8212; which is functionally the same as nobody&#8217;s concern.</p><p>The result: even in organizations where leaders genuinely believe retention matters, the actions that follow are still mostly oriented toward new logos. Because that&#8217;s where the incentives actually point.</p><h3><strong>3. The ROI visibility gap</strong></h3><p>Building a real retention system is genuinely hard.</p><p>You need to aggregate thousands of behavioral signals, identify the usage patterns that actually predict disengagement, distinguish internal causes from external ones, account for seasonality, and keep the model calibrated over time as your product and customer base evolve.</p><p>And here&#8217;s what makes it particularly frustrating: most available tools stop at scoring. You end up with a sophisticated health score sitting in a dashboard &#8212; that nobody actually acts on.</p><p>Compare that to acquisition. The mechanics there have become almost surgical.</p><p>X leads &#8594; Y opportunities &#8594; Z customers. Measured, tracked, optimized, constantly refined.</p><p>Retention has the measurement. What it consistently lacks is the activation. Reporting without impact. Signals without actions. A score that&#8217;s technically impressive and operationally inert.</p><p>Until that gap closes, the ROI of retention investment stays abstract &#8212; which makes it easy to deprioritize quarter after quarter.</p><h3>4. An underestimated math problem</h3><p>2% monthly churn sounds manageable on paper.</p><p>Run it over a full year, and it means you need to reconquer nearly a quarter of your customer base just to stay flat. Not to grow. To stay at the level you were twelve months ago.</p><p>At current CAC levels &#8212; which have been rising consistently across most SaaS segments &#8212; that&#8217;s not a rounding error. It&#8217;s a structural economic question.</p><p>And yet this math rarely generates the same urgency as a missed sales target. Partly because the pain is distributed over time. Partly because only investors and CFOs focused on long-term viability tend to track churn rate and LTV with the same rigor as pipeline metrics.</p><p>The companies that internalize this math early have a real structural advantage. The ones that don&#8217;t tend to discover the problem at the worst possible moment &#8212; when the market stops being forgiving.</p><h1>So why do the best SaaS companies take this seriously?</h1><p>Because one percentage point of churn saved is NRR added &#8212; without spending a single dollar on acquisition.</p><p>Because loyal customers fund your profitability and your growth in ways that new customers simply can&#8217;t yet.</p><p>Because they become your best advocates &#8212; to the market, and to investors who read retention metrics as a signal of product-market fit and operational maturity.</p><p>And because the macro context matters enormously. In an expanding market, you can sometimes paper over retention problems with enough new volume. In a contracting market &#8212; or in a segment where competition is intensifying and budgets are tightening &#8212; the game becomes close to zero-sum.</p><p>That&#8217;s when retention stops being an optimization topic and becomes a survival question. And it&#8217;s when the companies that built the system early pull decisively ahead.</p><h4>The shift worth making</h4><p>Acquisition infrastructure in SaaS has never been more sophisticated. Intent data, automated outreach, multi-touch attribution, ABM &#8212; the tooling around finding and converting new customers is genuinely impressive.</p><p>Retention infrastructure, by contrast, is still mostly reactive. Health scores that don&#8217;t trigger actions. CS teams managing large portfolios by instinct. Churn analyses that happen after the fact, when the customer has already mentally moved on.</p><p>The gap between those two realities is where a significant amount of revenue quietly disappears every year.</p><p>Building a retention engine as robust as your acquisition engine isn&#8217;t a nice-to-have anymore. It&#8217;s a structural question about how durable your growth actually is.</p><p>Is retention already a real RevOps priority in your organization? Or is it still the topic that keeps getting pushed to the next board?</p><p></p><h3>Are you dealing with churn challenges in your organization? I'd love to hear how you've approached it &#8212; what's worked, what hasn't, and where you're still figuring it out. Drop a comment or reach out directly.</h3><h3>We read every reply.</h3><div><hr></div><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption"><em>Thanks for reading! Let's connect on LinkedIn [<strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-grah/">Simon</a></strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-grah/"> </a>and <strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/soniabouanane/">Sonia</a></strong>]</em></p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div class="pullquote"><p><code>Want to anticipate churn before it happens ? </code></p><div class="directMessage button" data-attrs="{&quot;userId&quot;:466161044,&quot;userName&quot;:&quot;Sonia Bouanane&quot;,&quot;canDm&quot;:null,&quot;dmUpgradeOptions&quot;:null,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true}" data-component-name="DirectMessageToDOM"></div></div><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[What Actually Tells You a Customer Is About to Leave]]></title><description><![CDATA[Behavior doesn't lie. Declarations often do.]]></description><link>https://soniabouanane.substack.com/p/what-actually-tells-you-a-customer</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://soniabouanane.substack.com/p/what-actually-tells-you-a-customer</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Sonia Bouanane]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 17 Apr 2026 09:41:24 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t6W4!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb3c931a6-e0bb-4c9b-843e-ac8689b4e061_2048x2048.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p><em>Reading from France? Catch the French version on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/soniabouanane_churn-mrr-share-7450838090144878592-In_V?utm_source=share&amp;utm_medium=member_desktop&amp;rcm=ACoAAAbBbJAB3oy8hIPMoeiscOuTmaZVvgUKJuI">LinkedIn </a>here.</em></p><p><em>We are <strong>Sonia and Simon, co-founders of <a href="http://www.obviable.com">Obviable</a>. </strong>We help subscription SaaS companies detect weak churn signals before they turn into losses.</em></p><p>There are two ways to know whether a customer is going to stay or churn.</p><p>You watch what their end users actually do &#8212; measured against a baseline. And you talk to the decision-maker and the champions to understand what&#8217;s really driving their thinking, before the decision is made.</p><p>Most revenue teams rely on one or the other. The ones building durable NRR do both.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t6W4!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb3c931a6-e0bb-4c9b-843e-ac8689b4e061_2048x2048.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t6W4!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb3c931a6-e0bb-4c9b-843e-ac8689b4e061_2048x2048.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t6W4!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb3c931a6-e0bb-4c9b-843e-ac8689b4e061_2048x2048.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t6W4!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb3c931a6-e0bb-4c9b-843e-ac8689b4e061_2048x2048.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t6W4!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb3c931a6-e0bb-4c9b-843e-ac8689b4e061_2048x2048.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t6W4!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb3c931a6-e0bb-4c9b-843e-ac8689b4e061_2048x2048.jpeg" width="1456" height="1456" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b3c931a6-e0bb-4c9b-843e-ac8689b4e061_2048x2048.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1456,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:115665,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/i/194497577?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb3c931a6-e0bb-4c9b-843e-ac8689b4e061_2048x2048.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t6W4!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb3c931a6-e0bb-4c9b-843e-ac8689b4e061_2048x2048.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t6W4!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb3c931a6-e0bb-4c9b-843e-ac8689b4e061_2048x2048.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t6W4!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb3c931a6-e0bb-4c9b-843e-ac8689b4e061_2048x2048.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t6W4!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb3c931a6-e0bb-4c9b-843e-ac8689b4e061_2048x2048.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">caption NASA</figcaption></figure></div><p></p><h3>The three levels hiding in every at-risk conversation</h3><p>There&#8217;s a framework I keep coming back to, from negotiation expert Marwan Mery. His point: in any high-stakes interaction, there are three distinct levels at play.</p><blockquote><p><strong>The position</strong> &#8212; what&#8217;s stated out loud. <em>&#8220;We need to reduce our seat count.&#8221;</em> </p><p><strong>The objective</strong> &#8212; the expected gain. <em>Cut internal costs.</em> </p><p><strong>The stake</strong> &#8212; the non-negotiable. <em>Not having to justify an investment with no ROI to leadership.</em></p></blockquote><p>The objective and the stake are almost never surfaced voluntarily.</p><p>An AM or CS who stops at the position negotiates the license count. The one who digs into the stake understands that the real job is to rebuild an internal success story &#8212; a concrete metric, a use case their contact can bring to leadership to justify the renewal.</p><p>A discount fixes the position. It doesn&#8217;t resolve the stake. And more often than not, that customer leaves anyway the following year.</p><p>This is why discovery matters more than discounting. The best CS and AM teams are trained to ask the questions that surface what&#8217;s actually at risk &#8212; not just what&#8217;s being asked.</p><p></p><h3>The only thing you can measure reliably: behavior</h3><p>When I was an Account Manager at Nielsen, I worked with two data sources every day.</p><p>The <strong>retailer panel</strong> &#8212; point-of-sale data. What people actually buy. The <strong>consumer panel</strong> &#8212; self-reported basket data. What people say they buy.</p><p>In the alcohol category, the coverage rate (consumer panel revenue / retailer panel revenue) was structurally below 100%. Households systematically under-declared their consumption &#8212; partly because some of it happened outside the home, but also because declaring what you actually drink means exposing yourself to judgment.</p><p>Declarative data doesn&#8217;t lie out of bad faith. It protects.</p><p>The same dynamic plays out in B2B SaaS every day. A customer tells you everything is fine in a QBR. Their users haven&#8217;t logged in for six weeks. Someone is describing reality as they wish it were &#8212; not as it is.</p><h1><strong>The RevOps translation</strong></h1><p>Your data stack &#8212; usage, billing, CRM, support &#8212; can automate the detection of behavioral risk signals. Your CS and AM teams go after the stakes: the reorg, the new budget cycle, the board pressure that isn&#8217;t in any system yet.</p><p>Combining automated behavioral detection with human intelligence on stakes and objectives is the actual game changer. Not one or the other.</p><p>When you instrument the right events, you unlock three levels of value simultaneously:</p><p><strong>1. Account-level baseline &#8212; from blind spots to early signals</strong></p><p>Every account has a normal. Deviation from that normal is the signal &#8212; not what the customer says in a check-in call. Silence (drop in logins), feature abandonment, onboarding friction: these behavioral precursors to churn show up weeks before any conversation does. Your stack should surface these automatically, so your team acts on deviation, not declaration.</p><p><strong>2. Segment-level baseline &#8212; from intuition to repeatable playbooks</strong></p><p>Zoom out one level and the pattern becomes strategic. What separates your Power Users from the rest within the same tier? Who is saturating their quotas, using critical features, ready for the next step &#8212; and who isn&#8217;t? Upsell stops being a gut call and becomes a signal-driven motion. Pricing gets honest: aligned to value actually consumed, not value theoretically available.</p><p><strong>3. The MRR flywheel &#8212; from siloed teams to shared reality</strong></p><p>When CS, Sales, and Product are all looking at the same behavioral metrics, the conversation changes. No more competing narratives about account health. One source of truth &#8212; customer behavior &#8212; that allows every team to allocate their time where it creates the most leverage: at-risk accounts, expansion candidates, product gaps worth fixing.</p><h1>The principle behind all of this</h1><p>Behavior doesn&#8217;t lie. Declarations or public information often mask what matters most.</p><p>The customers who are about to churn rarely announce it clearly. They go quiet. They stop using the feature that justified the purchase. Their champion gets promoted and nobody updates the CRM.</p><p>The signal is in the data. The stake is in the conversation. You need both.</p><p></p><h3>Are you dealing with churn challenges in your organization? I'd love to hear how you've approached it &#8212; what's worked, what hasn't, and where you're still figuring it out. Drop a comment or reach out directly.</h3><h3>We read every reply.</h3><div><hr></div><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption"><em>Thanks for reading! Let's connect on LinkedIn [<strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-grah/">Simon</a></strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-grah/"> </a>and <strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/soniabouanane/">Sonia</a></strong>]</em></p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div class="pullquote"><p><code>Want to anticipate churn before it happens ? </code></p><div class="directMessage button" data-attrs="{&quot;userId&quot;:466161044,&quot;userName&quot;:&quot;Sonia Bouanane&quot;,&quot;canDm&quot;:null,&quot;dmUpgradeOptions&quot;:null,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true}" data-component-name="DirectMessageToDOM"></div></div><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Your Churn Rate Looks Fine. That's the Problem.]]></title><description><![CDATA[I&#8217;ve been making the rounds lately &#8212; AWS Summit, HR conferences, and more on the calendar. What I've learnt : The Sales/CS disconnect hiding your real retention risk]]></description><link>https://soniabouanane.substack.com/p/your-churn-rate-looks-fine-thats</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://soniabouanane.substack.com/p/your-churn-rate-looks-fine-thats</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Sonia Bouanane]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 10 Apr 2026 17:18:20 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!M_xp!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff44d8ea9-6344-4e2a-8820-48d9228b97b9_3712x5568.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p><em>Reading from France? Catch the French version on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/soniabouanane_saas-customersuccess-retention-share-7448415329891938304-UdlR?utm_source=share&amp;utm_medium=member_desktop&amp;rcm=ACoAAAbBbJAB3oy8hIPMoeiscOuTmaZVvgUKJuI">LinkedIn </a>here.</em></p><p><em>We are <strong>Sonia and Simon, co-founders of <a href="http://www.obviable.com">Obviable</a>. </strong>We help subscription SaaS companies detect weak churn signals before they turn into losses.</em></p><p>I ask the same question at every industry event. And the answers never stop making me think.</p><p>I&#8217;ve been making the rounds lately &#8212; AWS Summit, HR conferences, and more on the calendar. My favorite part of these events has nothing to do with the keynotes or the product demos. It&#8217;s the hallway conversations. The unscripted moments where Sales and CS people tell you what&#8217;s actually going on inside their organizations.</p><p>After talking with SaaS companies about <strong>what makes sense</strong> of their retention data, I&#8217;ve sat in enough of these conversations to notice a pattern. The companies that struggle most with churn aren&#8217;t the ones who don&#8217;t care about it. They&#8217;re the ones who are measuring the wrong thing &#8212; and don&#8217;t know it yet</p><p>And every single time, two things come up.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!M_xp!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff44d8ea9-6344-4e2a-8820-48d9228b97b9_3712x5568.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!M_xp!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff44d8ea9-6344-4e2a-8820-48d9228b97b9_3712x5568.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!M_xp!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff44d8ea9-6344-4e2a-8820-48d9228b97b9_3712x5568.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!M_xp!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff44d8ea9-6344-4e2a-8820-48d9228b97b9_3712x5568.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!M_xp!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff44d8ea9-6344-4e2a-8820-48d9228b97b9_3712x5568.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!M_xp!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff44d8ea9-6344-4e2a-8820-48d9228b97b9_3712x5568.jpeg" width="1456" height="2184" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f44d8ea9-6344-4e2a-8820-48d9228b97b9_3712x5568.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:2184,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1750063,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/i/193815061?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff44d8ea9-6344-4e2a-8820-48d9228b97b9_3712x5568.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!M_xp!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff44d8ea9-6344-4e2a-8820-48d9228b97b9_3712x5568.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!M_xp!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff44d8ea9-6344-4e2a-8820-48d9228b97b9_3712x5568.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!M_xp!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff44d8ea9-6344-4e2a-8820-48d9228b97b9_3712x5568.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!M_xp!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff44d8ea9-6344-4e2a-8820-48d9228b97b9_3712x5568.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Caption : darya-grey_owl</figcaption></figure></div><p></p><h3>First: churn is finally being taken seriously.</h3><p>Every company is doing something about it &#8212; structuring their data, hiring CS talent from high-growth SaaS companies, making retention a board-level conversation. </p><p>Leaders who used to wave off churn as an inevitable cost of doing business are now building entire teams around it.</p><p>The shift is real. And it&#8217;s overdue.</p><p></p><h3>Second: the Sales/CS disconnect is still very much alive.</h3><p>When I ask <em>&#8220;You&#8217;re in SaaS &#8212; is churn something you&#8217;re actively managing right now?&#8221;</em>, the Sales side is reliably reassuring (which, honestly, is their job &#128522;):</p><p>&#8212; <em>&#8220;We have no churn. 100% of our customers are happy.&#8221;</em> &#8212; <em>&#8220;We&#8217;re under 2%. It&#8217;s not really a concern.&#8221;</em></p><p>I don&#8217;t say this to criticize Sales. Their job is to close, to build confidence, to move forward. But these answers reveal something important: Sales and CS are often living in completely different versions of the same reality.</p><p>Then I talk to Customer Success. And the picture looks completely different.</p><h1><strong>What the CS team actually lives with</strong></h1><p>A Head of CS shared her frustration with me recently. On paper, their churn rate looked fine &#8212; the kind of number you could put on a slide without anyone raising an eyebrow. But underneath that number, her team was operating under conditions that made proactive retention nearly impossible.</p><p>The core problem: no reliable system for tracking how customers actually used the product. Not in aggregate &#8212; in practice, at the account level, in a way that could trigger an action before it was too late.</p><p>The consequences were entirely predictable:</p><p><strong>Permanent firefighting mode.</strong> With 50+ accounts per CSM, there&#8217;s no such thing as a quiet week. Every day is spent responding to what&#8217;s already on fire. By the time a CS team member surfaces for air, the window to re-engage an at-risk customer has already closed.</p><p><strong>Revenue lost to invisible gaps.</strong> Customers churned citing a missing feature &#8212; one that had existed in the product for over 12 months. The CS team had no idea those customers weren&#8217;t using it. Not because they weren&#8217;t paying attention, but because nobody had instrumented the signal. Without visibility into actual usage, you can&#8217;t fix what you can&#8217;t see &#8212; and you can&#8217;t act before it&#8217;s too late.</p><p><strong>Decisions made on gut feel.</strong> Without structured usage data flowing to the CS team, prioritization becomes guesswork. Which accounts need attention this week? Which ones look healthy but are actually at risk? The honest answer, in most teams, is: we&#8217;re not really sure. We go with our instincts and hope we&#8217;re right.</p><p>This isn&#8217;t a people problem. The CS team isn&#8217;t failing &#8212; they&#8217;re operating in a system that doesn&#8217;t give them what they need to succeed.</p><p>Her situation isn&#8217;t unusual. And it points to something more structural &#8212; a false sense of security that a clean churn metric creates.</p><h1>Why a "good" churn rate can still mask a slow bleed</h1><p>Here&#8217;s the uncomfortable truth: a clean churn number on a quarterly report can coexist with serious, compounding retention problems. The metric looks fine right up until it doesn&#8217;t &#8212; and by then, the damage has already been done.</p><p>There are three reasons this happens.</p><p><strong>1. You&#8217;re measuring the consequence, not the signal.</strong></p><p>Churn doesn&#8217;t start at cancellation. It starts weeks or months earlier, when a customer stops logging in regularly, when a key feature goes unused, when the champion who drove the purchase leaves the company and nobody notices. By the time that disengagement shows up in your churn rate, the customer has already mentally moved on. The cancellation email is just the paperwork.</p><p><em>The signal isn&#8217;t the resignation. The signal is the silence before it.</em></p><p>And when your CS team finally sees it, it&#8217;s already too late to re-engage.</p><p><strong>2. Averages hide what&#8217;s actually breaking.</strong></p><p>A 2% global churn rate sounds healthy. But that same number can mask 15% churn in month one &#8212; which means your onboarding is broken, your time-to-value is too long, and a significant portion of your new customers are leaving before they&#8217;ve ever experienced what your product can actually do.</p><p>Without that visibility, you can&#8217;t course-correct the product, and you can&#8217;t deploy the right retention actions at the right time. You won&#8217;t see any of this in a global rate. You&#8217;ll only see it when you break your data into cohorts &#8212; by acquisition channel, by segment, by onboarding path, by product tier. The aggregate smooths over the fractures. Cohort analysis is where the real diagnosis begins.</p><p><strong>3. You&#8217;re aggregating what shouldn&#8217;t be aggregated.</strong></p><p>Self-serve and Enterprise customers churn for completely different reasons, on completely different timelines, with completely different warning signs. Combining them into a single number gives you a metric that&#8217;s clean enough to present &#8212; and too blunt to act on.</p><p>Segmentation isn&#8217;t a refinement you add later when you have more resources. It&#8217;s the foundation &#8212; for allocating your team&#8217;s attention to the right accounts at the right moment, without burning everyone out in the process.</p><h3><strong>What the best teams do differently</strong></h3><p>They make usage observable.</p><p>Not just at the product analytics level, where data scientists can pull reports on request. Observable in the hands of the CS team &#8212; surfaced automatically, translated into clear signals, tied to specific accounts and specific actions.</p><p>The gap between what Sales promises and what CS delivers doesn&#8217;t close by hiring more CSMs or running more QBRs. It closes when the CS team can see, in real time, whether customers are actually getting value from the product &#8212; and get an alert when they&#8217;re not.</p><p>That&#8217;s what allows you to move from reactive to proactive. From gut feel to informed prioritization. From hoping your customers are healthy to actually knowing which ones need attention this week &#8212; and why.</p><p>Your churn rate tells you what already happened. Usage data tells you what&#8217;s about to.</p><p>The companies building durable retention aren&#8217;t just tracking churn more carefully. They&#8217;re instrumenting the signals that precede it &#8212; and building the systems to act on them before a customer decides to leave.</p><h3>Are you dealing with churn challenges in your organization? I'd love to hear how you've approached it &#8212; what's worked, what hasn't, and where you're still figuring it out. Drop a comment or reach out directly.</h3><h3>We read every reply.</h3><div><hr></div><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption"><em>Thanks for reading! Let's connect on LinkedIn [<strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-grah/">Simon</a></strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-grah/"> </a>and <strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/soniabouanane/">Sonia</a></strong>]</em></p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div class="pullquote"><p><code>Want to anticipate churn before it happens ? </code></p><div class="directMessage button" data-attrs="{&quot;userId&quot;:466161044,&quot;userName&quot;:&quot;Sonia Bouanane&quot;,&quot;canDm&quot;:null,&quot;dmUpgradeOptions&quot;:null,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true}" data-component-name="DirectMessageToDOM"></div></div><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Churn Prediction Tax - Most SaaS teams are paying for data they can't use.]]></title><description><![CDATA[After 30+ conversations with RevOps and CS leaders, one thing is clear: we are excellent at building dashboards. We are failing the last mile of retention.]]></description><link>https://soniabouanane.substack.com/p/the-churn-prediction-tax-most-saas</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://soniabouanane.substack.com/p/the-churn-prediction-tax-most-saas</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Sonia Bouanane]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 02 Apr 2026 09:54:11 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FOTz!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F98d6059c-34e2-4969-bd81-04230e3746e7_9267x6496.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p><em>Reading from France? Catch the French version on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/soniabouanane_saas-customersuccess-retention-share-7445407634460991488-rpVN?utm_source=share&amp;utm_medium=member_desktop&amp;rcm=ACoAAAbBbJAB3oy8hIPMoeiscOuTmaZVvgUKJuI">LinkedIn </a>here.</em></p><p><em>We are <strong>Sonia and Simon, co-founders of <a href="http://www.obviable.com">Obviable</a>. </strong>We help subscription SaaS companies detect weak churn signals before they turn into losses.</em></p><p><strong>After 30+ conversations with RevOps and CS leaders, one thing is clear: we are excellent at building dashboards. We are failing the last mile of retention.</strong></p><p>I&#8217;ve spent the last few months talking to RevOps and Customer Success leaders across B2B SaaS. Different company sizes. Different sectors. Different levels of maturity.</p><p>What struck me isn&#8217;t how different their situations are. It&#8217;s how consistent their frustrations are &#8212; even when their setups look completely different on paper.</p><p>At <strong>2% monthly churn</strong>, you lose one customer in four every year. It&#8217;s a silent killer of NRR and reputation. Everyone knows they need a proactive system. But in the rush to fix it, most teams fall into one of two expensive traps. And both traps have the same ending.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FOTz!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F98d6059c-34e2-4969-bd81-04230e3746e7_9267x6496.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FOTz!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F98d6059c-34e2-4969-bd81-04230e3746e7_9267x6496.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FOTz!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F98d6059c-34e2-4969-bd81-04230e3746e7_9267x6496.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FOTz!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F98d6059c-34e2-4969-bd81-04230e3746e7_9267x6496.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FOTz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F98d6059c-34e2-4969-bd81-04230e3746e7_9267x6496.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FOTz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F98d6059c-34e2-4969-bd81-04230e3746e7_9267x6496.jpeg" width="1456" height="1021" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/98d6059c-34e2-4969-bd81-04230e3746e7_9267x6496.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1021,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:21720609,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/i/192939659?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F98d6059c-34e2-4969-bd81-04230e3746e7_9267x6496.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FOTz!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F98d6059c-34e2-4969-bd81-04230e3746e7_9267x6496.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FOTz!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F98d6059c-34e2-4969-bd81-04230e3746e7_9267x6496.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FOTz!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F98d6059c-34e2-4969-bd81-04230e3746e7_9267x6496.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FOTz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F98d6059c-34e2-4969-bd81-04230e3746e7_9267x6496.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">caption Supichaya Sookprasert</figcaption></figure></div><p></p><h1>Scenario 1 &#183; The Control Trap</h1><h3>Building in-house: a fundamental investment &#8212; that takes forever to ship</h3><p>The reasoning is sound. You own the data, you own the model, you avoid vendor lock-in. It feels like the right call &#8212; a real infrastructure investment, not another SaaS subscription. So the project starts. An audit is commissioned. A data scientist is assigned. The roadmap is set.</p><p>Then the roadmap shifts. A product release requires revisiting the inputs. The model is &#8220;almost ready&#8221; &#8212; it&#8217;s been almost ready for four months.</p><blockquote><p><em>"We started building our own model 18 months ago. Every time the product ships a new feature, we have to revisit the inputs. It's still not in production."</em> &#8212; <strong>Head of RevOps, B2B SaaS</strong></p></blockquote><p>And when it finally ships, a new problem appears: <strong>false positives</strong>. The model fires on healthy accounts. CSMs follow up. Nothing&#8217;s wrong. They do it again. Still nothing. They stop checking the alerts. Not because anyone told them to &#8212; because they learned the signal isn&#8217;t reliable.</p><p><strong>Real annual cost: &#8364;90&#8211;150K</strong> (Payroll, maintenance, and the 6 to 12 months gap before the first alert).</p><p><em>The model is being refined. The pipeline is being cleaned. And while all of this is happening, your at-risk customer still hasn&#8217;t received a phone ca</em></p><h1>Scenario 2 &#183; The Dashboard Trap</h1><h3>Deploying a CS platform: the score exists. The call doesn't happen.</h3><p>These companies have done the hard work. They bought the platform. They ran the implementation. They have a health score, a <em>Single Source of Truth</em>, and a dashboard with red, amber, and green. For a few months, it genuinely felt like progress.</p><p>Then the cracks appeared. The score is built on lagging indicators &#8212; NPS, manual sentiment, ticket volume. It&#8217;s declarative, not behavioral. It tells you what customers <em>said</em>. Not what they <em>stopped doing</em>.</p><blockquote><p><em>"I have everything I need in theory. But I don't naturally go check the scores. I work with my contacts, not with dashboards."</em> &#8212; <strong>CSM, B2B SaaS (60+ accounts)</strong></p></blockquote><p>Even when a real alert fires, it often goes nowhere. Because the alert says something is wrong &#8212; it doesn&#8217;t say <em>how</em>. Without context, without a clear next action, the alert is just a color. CSMs learn to scroll past colors.</p><p><strong>Real annual cost: &#8364;90&#8211;100K</strong> (License plus the dedicated admin, plus months of deployment).</p><p><em>The admin is updating the health score. The dashboard is loading. And while all of this is happening, your at-risk customer still hasn&#8217;t received a phone call.</em></p><h1><strong>The Real Problem: Data structure is not operational performance</strong></h1><p>Let&#8217;s be clear: <strong>these projects are foundational.</strong> Centralizing your data, building a source of truth, auditing your infrastructure &#8212; this is necessary work. We aren&#8217;t disqualifying it. We&#8217;re highlighting where it stops.</p><p>The problem isn&#8217;t the quality of the score. It&#8217;s the gap between the score and the phone call.</p><p>A client who logs in every day but hasn&#8217;t touched the core feature in six weeks isn&#8217;t engaged. They&#8217;re quietly leaving. No NPS will catch it. No login metric will surface it. Especially in <strong>Low Touch</strong> segments, success isn&#8217;t about the depth of your dashboard. It&#8217;s about the <strong>rhythm of your action</strong>.</p><p>Most teams think they have weeks to act after the first warning sign. In reality, the window is often days &#8212; because the visible warning sign is already the consequence of a decision made six weeks earlier.</p><h1>A Third Path: Start from the alert. Not the score.</h1><p>The alert-first model takes the best of both approaches &#8212; the data rigor of an internal build, the centralization of a platform &#8212; without the shadow costs that collapse ROI.</p><p><strong>What this looks like in practice:</strong></p><ul><li><p><strong>No dashboard to check:</strong> CSMs receive a plain-language brief &#8212; what changed, why it matters, what to say. Not a score to interpret. A reason to pick up the phone.</p></li><li><p><strong>Behavioral, not declarative:</strong> Feature-level adoption patterns, velocity changes, segment-wide shifts &#8212; signals that appear weeks before an NPS drop.</p></li><li><p><strong>No dedicated admin:</strong> From raw usage data to actionable retention alerts in under 12 weeks.</p></li></ul><p>If your system is designed to be looked at rather than acted upon, you&#8217;re not predicting churn. You&#8217;re documenting it.</p><h3><strong>Which scenario does your team recognize itself in?</strong></h3><p>If you&#8217;re ready to close the gap between signal and action, reach out directly. We&#8217;re happy to walk through what an alert-first approach looks like for your setup.</p><h3>We read every reply.</h3><div><hr></div><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption"><em>Thanks for reading! Let's connect on LinkedIn [<strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-grah/">Simon</a></strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-grah/"> </a>and <strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/soniabouanane/">Sonia</a></strong>]</em></p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div class="pullquote"><p><code>Want to anticipate churn before it happens ? </code></p><div class="directMessage button" data-attrs="{&quot;userId&quot;:466161044,&quot;userName&quot;:&quot;Sonia Bouanane&quot;,&quot;canDm&quot;:null,&quot;dmUpgradeOptions&quot;:null,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true}" data-component-name="DirectMessageToDOM"></div></div><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Why your churn system is failing you — even if you think you have one]]></title><description><![CDATA[After 20+ conversations with Head of Customer and RevOps leaders across B2B SaaS, three stages emerged. Each with its own breaking point.]]></description><link>https://soniabouanane.substack.com/p/why-your-churn-system-is-failing</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://soniabouanane.substack.com/p/why-your-churn-system-is-failing</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Sonia Bouanane]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 26 Mar 2026 08:36:43 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cjML!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F502e0239-8cb0-4cd4-b666-d4f5cb501733_3299x3299.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p><em>Reading from France? Catch the French version on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/soniabouanane_saas-customersuccess-revops-share-7442851448725524480-ZkEF?utm_source=share&amp;utm_medium=member_desktop&amp;rcm=ACoAAAbBbJAB3oy8hIPMoeiscOuTmaZVvgUKJuI">LinkedIn </a>here.</em></p><p><em>We are <strong>Sonia and Simon, co-founders of <a href="http://www.obviable.com">Obviable</a>. </strong>We help subscription SaaS companies detect weak churn signals before they turn into losses.</em></p><p>I&#8217;ve spent the last few months talking to Customer Success and RevOps leaders across B2B SaaS companies. Different sizes, different sectors, different levels of maturity.</p><p>What struck me isn&#8217;t how different their situations are. It&#8217;s how similar their frustrations are &#8212; even when their setups look completely different on paper.</p><p>After 30+ conversations, a pattern emerged. Every company falls into one of three stages. And each stage has its own specific failure mode.</p><p>Here&#8217;s what I found.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cjML!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F502e0239-8cb0-4cd4-b666-d4f5cb501733_3299x3299.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cjML!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F502e0239-8cb0-4cd4-b666-d4f5cb501733_3299x3299.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cjML!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F502e0239-8cb0-4cd4-b666-d4f5cb501733_3299x3299.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cjML!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F502e0239-8cb0-4cd4-b666-d4f5cb501733_3299x3299.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cjML!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F502e0239-8cb0-4cd4-b666-d4f5cb501733_3299x3299.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cjML!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F502e0239-8cb0-4cd4-b666-d4f5cb501733_3299x3299.jpeg" width="1456" height="1456" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/502e0239-8cb0-4cd4-b666-d4f5cb501733_3299x3299.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1456,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:648470,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/i/192181301?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F502e0239-8cb0-4cd4-b666-d4f5cb501733_3299x3299.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cjML!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F502e0239-8cb0-4cd4-b666-d4f5cb501733_3299x3299.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cjML!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F502e0239-8cb0-4cd4-b666-d4f5cb501733_3299x3299.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cjML!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F502e0239-8cb0-4cd4-b666-d4f5cb501733_3299x3299.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cjML!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F502e0239-8cb0-4cd4-b666-d4f5cb501733_3299x3299.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">caption Bingqian Li</figcaption></figure></div><p></p><h1>Stage 1: The Prediction Challenge</h1><h3>No health score. No automated alert. CSMs navigate by instinct.</h3><blockquote><p><em>"I have to set reminders everywhere just to stay on top of my accounts. The mental load is exhausting."</em> &#8212; Laura, CSM, B2B SaaS</p></blockquote><p>The data exists. Usage logs, billing records, support tickets, CRM interactions. It&#8217;s all there, just scattered across three to five different tools, and nobody has the bandwidth to connect the dots manually.</p><p>So CSMs do what they can. They call the clients they remember. They respond to the accounts that shout loudest. They set calendar reminders and hope nothing slips through.</p><p>The problem is structural. Without a prioritization system, every account looks roughly the same. The client who&#8217;s about to churn silently gets the same level of attention as the one who just sent a glowing email.</p><p>And here&#8217;s what makes it particularly painful: <strong>by the time the cancellation notice arrives, the decision was made weeks earlier.</strong> The client had already evaluated alternatives, started a trial, maybe even signed a new contract. Your call comes not just too late : it comes after the migration plan is already in motion.</p><p>The signal was there. Nobody was watching it.</p><p><strong>What actually moves the needle at this stage</strong> isn&#8217;t a sophisticated model on day one. It&#8217;s building a behavioral health score based on real product usage (not logins, not NPS, not manual inputs) and delivering it where CSMs already work. One source of truth, cross-referencing usage, billing, CRM and support automatically. So that on Monday morning, each CSM knows exactly which three accounts to prioritize, without spending two hours searching for the answer.</p><h1>Stage 2: The Activation Challenge</h1><h3>Score in place. Processes defined. But the link between signal and action is painfully manual.</h3><blockquote><p><em>"We have workflows &#8212; but they're not automated. CSMs analyze the score and decide what to do themselves. Nothing triggers on its own."</em> &#8212; &#201;milie, Head of CSM, B2B SaaS</p></blockquote><p>These companies have done the hard work. They built something. And for a while, it felt like progress.</p><p>But then the cracks appeared.</p><p>The score was built on the wrong inputs. NPS surveys sent to every user regardless of whether they&#8217;d logged in recently. Sentiment logged manually by CSMs, which means the data gaps appear exactly when accounts are most at risk and CSMs are most stretched. Risk flags entered by hand, outdated within weeks. The score looks objective. It isn&#8217;t.</p><p>One CSM told me something that stuck with me: he&#8217;d called clients who had given them a 0 on the NPS survey. They told him they&#8217;d clicked by default. That 0 had been sitting in the health score for months, dragging down the signal quality for an entire segment.</p><p>The deeper issue is feature-level invisibility. A client who logs in every day but hasn&#8217;t touched the core feature in six weeks isn&#8217;t an engaged client. They&#8217;re a client who is quietly leaving. No login metric will tell you that. No NPS will catch it. It only shows up when you look at behavioral signals at feature level (adoption rate, velocity, success patterns) and when you notice those patterns starting to change.</p><p>And even when a real alert fires, it often goes nowhere. Because the alert says something is wrong. It doesn&#8217;t say wrong how. Wrong enough to call? Wrong enough to escalate? Wrong enough to offer a discount or a QBR? Without context and without a suggested next action, the alert is just noise. And CSMs (already managing 50+ accounts) learn to scroll past it.</p><blockquote><p><em>"The NPS scores we received made no sense. I called people who had given us a 0 &#8212; they told me they'd just clicked by default. "</em> &#8212; Marc, CSM, B2B SaaS</p></blockquote><p><strong>What actually moves the needle at this stage</strong> is automated workflows triggered by behavioral risk thresholds, not manual decisions made after the fact. And plain-language memos for each at-risk account, generated automatically before every call or QBR, telling the CSM exactly what changed, why it matters, and what to say. Not a dashboard to interpret. A brief to act on.</p><h1><strong>Stage 3: The ROI </strong>Challenge</h1><h3>Platform deployed. Score active. Budget spent. ROI nowhere to be found.</h3><blockquote><p><em>"We had a churn platform. We had to hire someone full-time just to administer it. Teams stopped using it because the data wasn't reliable. We ended up cancelling."</em> &#8212; Claire, Senior CSM, B2B SaaS</p></blockquote><p>This is the stage that surprises people most. Everything looked right on paper. The platform was reputable. The setup was thorough. The intentions were good.</p><p>And yet.</p><p><strong>The first failure mode is internal politics.</strong> When a company has spent months (and significant budget) building an internal health score, leadership doesn&#8217;t want to hear about a competing score from an external platform. Even if the internal score is insufficient. Even if everyone on the CS team knows it.</p><p>One Head of CSM told me directly: &#8220;Leadership invested time and money building our score. They won&#8217;t allow another one, even if ours isn&#8217;t good enough. It&#8217;s become a political blocker.&#8221;</p><p>The investment that was supposed to solve the problem became the obstacle to solving it.</p><p><strong>The second failure mode is talent dependency.</strong> Health scores built at a point in time drift as the product evolves. New features get launched, old ones get deprecated, usage patterns shift, and the model built six months ago stops reflecting reality.</p><p>When the data engineer who built and maintained the model leaves, the project freezes. One VP Ops told me his senior data engineer was leaving in two weeks. All data projects were on hold. The score wouldn&#8217;t be updated. The model would slowly become unreliable. And nobody had a plan for it.</p><p><strong>The third and most expensive failure mode is non-adoption.</strong> A red score in a dashboard doesn&#8217;t tell a CSM what to do next. It tells them something is wrong. But without context, without explanation, without a clear action, the alert becomes noise.</p><p>CSMs are already overwhelmed. They live in their CRM. If the information doesn&#8217;t arrive where they work, it won&#8217;t be used. One CSM put it simply: &#8220;In our platform, I have everything I need in theory. But I don&#8217;t naturally go check the scores. I work with my contacts, not with dashboards.&#8221;</p><p>The hidden cost of Stage 3 isn&#8217;t just the platform subscription. It&#8217;s the platform fee, plus the dedicated admin hire that wasn&#8217;t in the original budget, plus the months of deployment, plus the internal political capital spent convincing leadership. And then the churn that happened anyway because the system wasn&#8217;t actually being used.</p><p><strong>What actually moves the needle at this stage</strong> is radical simplicity. No new interface to learn. No competing score to defend internally. One enrichment layer on what already exists, built on clean data, delivered in the tools teams already use, with automated actions and plain-language explanations. And critically: a data quality audit before anything is built, so you&#8217;re not stacking intelligence on a broken foundation.</p><h1>The universal blind spot: product usage</h1><p>Every company I spoke to &#8212; regardless of stage &#8212; had the same gap.</p><p>They were managing churn with declarative data. While the real signal was sitting untouched in product usage.</p><p>NPS. Manual sentiment. Ticket volume. These are lagging indicators. They tell you something went wrong. They don&#8217;t tell you it&#8217;s about to.</p><p>And there&#8217;s a structural reason this blind spot persists.</p><p><strong>50+ accounts per CSM.</strong> You&#8217;re triaging &#8212; responding to urgencies or following the plan. There&#8217;s no bandwidth left to go looking for trouble in accounts that seem quiet.</p><p><strong>Limited access to end users.</strong> The contact you reach is the buyer, not the person using the product daily. The feedback you get is filtered, delayed, disconnected from what&#8217;s actually happening on the ground.</p><p><strong>External events hit dozens of accounts at once &#8212; invisibly.</strong> A budget freeze, a market shift, a regulatory change. No ticket raised. No NPS drop. Just a slow, silent disengagement spreading across a segment &#8212; undetected until renewals start failing.</p><p>In that environment, managing churn by feel isn&#8217;t a process failure. It&#8217;s the logical consequence of the information available.</p><p>The companies that catch churn early aren&#8217;t asking their CSMs to look harder. They&#8217;re watching what clients actually do in the product &#8212; automatically, continuously, across the entire portfolio.</p><p>Not how often they log in. But which features they activate. At what velocity. With what success rate. And when those patterns shift &#8212; not just on one account, but across a segment.</p><p>One account dropping off a feature could be noise. Ten accounts in the same segment showing the same pattern over three weeks &#8212; that&#8217;s a signal. Visible only when you&#8217;re looking at behavioral data at portfolio level.</p><p>That shift, detected early enough, gives you a real window to intervene. Before the client evaluates alternatives. Before the internal decision is final.</p><p>Most teams think they have weeks to act after the first warning sign. In reality the window is often days &#8212; because the visible warning sign is already the consequence of a decision made two months earlier.</p><p>The companies winning on retention aren&#8217;t reacting faster.</p><p>They&#8217;re detecting earlier.</p><h1>The question worth sitting with</h1><p>Whatever stage you&#8217;re at (no score, internal score, or platform score), the question is the same:</p><p><strong>Are you detecting the decision, or are you detecting the consequence?</strong></p><p>If your alerts fire when a client stops responding to emails, you&#8217;re detecting the consequence.</p><p>If your system catches the moment a power user stops activating a critical feature, or when three users quietly drop off a workflow they ran daily for six months, that&#8217;s detecting the decision.</p><p>And that&#8217;s where retention is won or lost.</p><h3>Which stage does your team recognize itself in? </h3><h3>We read every reply.</h3><div><hr></div><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption"><em>Thanks for reading! Let's connect on LinkedIn [<strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-grah/">Simon</a></strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-grah/"> </a>and <strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/soniabouanane/">Sonia</a></strong>]</em></p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div class="pullquote"><p><code>Want to anticipate churn before it happens ? </code></p><div class="directMessage button" data-attrs="{&quot;userId&quot;:466161044,&quot;userName&quot;:&quot;Sonia Bouanane&quot;,&quot;canDm&quot;:null,&quot;dmUpgradeOptions&quot;:null,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true}" data-component-name="DirectMessageToDOM"></div></div><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Going low-touch without bleeding MRR]]></title><description><![CDATA[What the field actually teaches you &#8212; beyond the cost-cutting narrative.]]></description><link>https://soniabouanane.substack.com/p/going-low-touch-without-bleeding</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://soniabouanane.substack.com/p/going-low-touch-without-bleeding</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Sonia Bouanane]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 20 Mar 2026 10:20:18 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!H6sB!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3c780ac-f557-4ca4-a451-c6d1a5db035d_7795x5199.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p><em>Reading from France? Catch the French version on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/soniabouanane_saas-revops-customersuccess-share-7440703285616918529-0dSR?utm_source=share&amp;utm_medium=member_desktop&amp;rcm=ACoAAAbBbJAB3oy8hIPMoeiscOuTmaZVvgUKJuI">LinkedIn </a>here.</em></p><p><em>We are <strong>Sonia and Simon, co-founders of <a href="http://www.obviable.com">Obviable</a>. </strong>We help subscription SaaS companies detect weak churn signals before they turn into losses.</em></p><p>Most SaaS companies go low-touch to cut costs.</p><p>The best ones do it to improve retention.</p><p>That distinction sounds subtle. It isn&#8217;t. The goals shape the design, the metrics, and ultimately the outcome. Companies that go low-touch as a cost exercise build a leaner operation. Companies that go low-touch as a retention play build a system. And the difference shows up in NRR six to twelve months later.</p><p>In the current environment, the case for low-touch is genuinely compelling. Products are more intuitive. Customers are more autonomous and increasingly prefer asynchronous, self-serve experiences over scheduled calls. Cost-to-serve pressure is real on both sides of the table: your customers are being asked to justify every line of their software budget, and you&#8217;re being asked to do more with less. And the tooling has genuinely caught up: AI and automation can now power a retention engine that would have required a much larger CS team just three years ago.</p><p>On paper, everything is aligned.</p><p>In practice, the system breaks. Often quietly, and expensively.</p><p>Here&#8217;s what I&#8217;ve learned from talking to dozens of CS and RevOps leaders who&#8217;ve been through it.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!H6sB!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3c780ac-f557-4ca4-a451-c6d1a5db035d_7795x5199.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!H6sB!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3c780ac-f557-4ca4-a451-c6d1a5db035d_7795x5199.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!H6sB!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3c780ac-f557-4ca4-a451-c6d1a5db035d_7795x5199.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!H6sB!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3c780ac-f557-4ca4-a451-c6d1a5db035d_7795x5199.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!H6sB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3c780ac-f557-4ca4-a451-c6d1a5db035d_7795x5199.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!H6sB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3c780ac-f557-4ca4-a451-c6d1a5db035d_7795x5199.jpeg" width="1456" height="971" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f3c780ac-f557-4ca4-a451-c6d1a5db035d_7795x5199.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:971,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2716957,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/i/191565575?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3c780ac-f557-4ca4-a451-c6d1a5db035d_7795x5199.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!H6sB!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3c780ac-f557-4ca4-a451-c6d1a5db035d_7795x5199.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!H6sB!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3c780ac-f557-4ca4-a451-c6d1a5db035d_7795x5199.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!H6sB!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3c780ac-f557-4ca4-a451-c6d1a5db035d_7795x5199.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!H6sB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3c780ac-f557-4ca4-a451-c6d1a5db035d_7795x5199.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Photo Engin Akyurt</figcaption></figure></div><p></p><h1>Where low-touch actually fails</h1><h3>Failure 1: You automate a product that isn't ready.</h3><p>Low-touch only works if your product has a clear, repeatable &#8220;aha moment&#8221; reachable in under five minutes, with activation rates consistently above 70%. Below that threshold, automation doesn&#8217;t reduce churn. It scales it.</p><p>The logic is straightforward: if customers aren&#8217;t finding value on their own in a high-touch model, removing the human touchpoints doesn&#8217;t fix the underlying problem. It removes the last layer of intervention that was compensating for it.</p><p>The signal that you&#8217;re not ready: if you still need a human to explain the product&#8217;s value during onboarding, you haven&#8217;t met the precondition. Deploying automation anyway builds a very efficient machine for churning customers who never fully activated.</p><p>A practical checkpoint before committing: run a pilot on 20% of your lower-value accounts. If retention holds over two to three renewal cycles, scale. If it doesn&#8217;t, you&#8217;ve learned something important before it cost you the full base.</p><h3>Failure 2: You treat low-touch as a headcount decision instead of a system design decision.</h3><p><em>&#8220;We went from 60 CSMs to 15 for the same base.&#8221;</em></p><p>I hear versions of this regularly. The smaller accounts get moved to a hub model, nominally managed by Sales or a scaled CS function. And this is where it quietly breaks down.</p><p>Sales teams are not trained on adoption dynamics. They don&#8217;t naturally read usage signals. They don&#8217;t know what a sustained drop in feature velocity means, or why a cluster of unresolved support tickets on the same friction point is a reliable leading indicator of churn three months out. They manage revenue conversations. Lifecycle conversations are a different discipline.</p><p>Without reliable signals. Without a prioritization layer that tells them which accounts need attention and why. Without orchestration that connects the behavioral data to the people who can act on it. Accounts churn silently until the renewal conversation. And everyone is surprised.</p><p>Low-touch is not a reduction in attention. It&#8217;s a shift in how attention is triggered and delivered. If you haven&#8217;t redesigned the system that generates and routes those triggers, you haven&#8217;t gone low-touch. You&#8217;ve gone hands-off. Those are very different things.</p><h3>Failure 3: Too much data, no decisions.</h3><p>Dashboards multiply. KPIs contradict each other. Usage data lives in the product analytics platform. Billing signals are in the finance system. Relationship history is in the CRM. Support patterns are in the ticketing tool. And nobody has built the layer that connects them.</p><p>The outcome is predictable: when finding the relevant signal requires opening four tools and cross-referencing three data sources, people stop looking. They fall back on what they know, direct relationships, gut feel, whatever surfaced in the last QBR. And the weak signals, the ones that show up weeks before a customer mentally decides to leave, get missed entirely.</p><p>If your current setup requires a CSM or an account owner to do manual research before every client interaction to understand what&#8217;s been happening on the account, the infrastructure is working against retention, not for it.</p><h3>Failure 4: Health scores built on declarative data and dirty inputs.</h3><p>Let me be direct: a badly constructed health score is more dangerous than no health score at all.</p><p>Here&#8217;s what it produces in practice.</p><p>A satisfaction survey sent to every user in the account, regardless of whether they&#8217;ve engaged with the product in the last 60 days, doesn&#8217;t measure satisfaction. It measures response rate among people who may have clicked a default score to clear a notification. The signal is noise.</p><p>Risk flags and sentiment scores logged manually by the CSM when they have capacity, which means they&#8217;re missing exactly when accounts are most at risk and the CSM is most stretched. The gaps in the data are not random. They&#8217;re correlated with the moments you most need the data.</p><p>And tools deployed with significant investment that get quietly abandoned because the data feeding them couldn&#8217;t be trusted. I&#8217;ve heard this from multiple CS and RevOps leaders about different platforms. The problem is almost never the tool. It&#8217;s the data quality upstream, and the inconsistent manual inputs that introduce noise at every stage.</p><p><em>&#8220;We had the data. But it wasn&#8217;t actionable.&#8221;</em></p><p>The most counterintuitive failure mode: a health score can show green while a customer is already preparing their exit. The account is activating well. Survey scores are reasonable. No support escalations. But in a face-to-face conversation, the client mentions that budget reviews are coming, that a key champion is leaving, that the internal project the tool was bought to support has been deprioritized. You don&#8217;t see any of that in the declarative data. And in a low-touch model, nobody is in the room to pick it up.</p><h1>What actually works, at scale</h1><h3>Build a behavioral health score, not a declarative one.</h3><p>Not logins. Not NPS response rates. The depth of actual engagement: which features are activated, at what velocity, by how many users relative to the total number of licenses purchased.</p><p>An account with 400 licensed users where 90% haven&#8217;t engaged with a core feature in two months is a high-risk account. Even if nobody has complained. Even if the last survey came back positive. Even if the relationship feels solid from the outside.</p><p>The right behavioral metric is always product-specific. What predicts retention is almost never the generic indicator. It&#8217;s the specific usage pattern that distinguishes customers who are extracting real value from customers who activated, settled into surface-level usage, and are quietly drifting toward non-renewal. Identifying that pattern is the foundational data work that everything downstream depends on.</p><h3>Aggregate the four signals you already have.</h3><p>Product usage. Billing. CRM. Support.</p><p>Almost every company already has this data. The problem is that it lives in separate systems, and nobody has built the aggregation layer. In a high-touch model, experienced CSMs develop an intuitive picture of each account by triangulating across these sources over time. In a low-touch model, that triangulation needs to be automated. Because nobody is going to do it manually across a base of hundreds or thousands of accounts.</p><p>The goal is not a unified dashboard. It&#8217;s a signal layer that identifies the behavioral combinations that predict churn, and surfaces an alert at the right moment, on the right account, routed to the right person, without requiring human effort to generate it.</p><h3>Package data for decisions, not for analysis.</h3><p>Not another reporting layer. A briefing that arrives in the tools your team already uses (agenda, CRM, mail), at the moment they need it.</p><p>An alert in the CRM when a behavioral threshold is crossed. A summary that appears automatically before a scheduled client interaction. A thirty-second read that states: here is what changed on this account in the last three weeks, here is why it represents a risk, here is the intervention most likely to change the outcome.</p><p>The packaging matters as much as the signal. If accessing the information requires a context switch, a tool login, a manual search, it won&#8217;t be accessed. The behavioral data needs to find the person who can act on it, at the moment they can act on it. Not wait to be discovered when someone has time.</p><h3>Design the human-in-the-loop deliberately, not as an afterthought.</h3><p>AI handles the majority of routine interactions well. The interactions it handles poorly are precisely the ones that determine whether a customer stays or starts evaluating alternatives. A confident wrong answer on a billing dispute. An automated reactivation sequence sent to an account that is already in the process of migrating. A generic check-in message that signals to the customer that nobody is actually paying attention.</p><p>Without escalation triggers calibrated to the right behavioral thresholds, these moments get missed. And they tend to be the most expensive ones, both in terms of the revenue at risk and the relationship cost of getting it wrong.</p><p>The human-in-the-loop is not a fallback for automation failures. It&#8217;s a deliberate architectural decision: these are the account profiles, risk levels, and interaction patterns where human judgment changes the outcome. The system&#8217;s job is to identify those moments and route them correctly. Everything else, the automation handles.</p><h1><strong>What good low-touch actually looks like</strong></h1><p>A well-executed low-touch model is invisible to the customer.</p><p>They don&#8217;t experience it as less attention. They experience the attention they get as relevant, timely, and specific to their actual situation. Because it is. It&#8217;s just generated by behavioral signals and delivered through automated workflows rather than scheduled calls and manual relationship management.</p><p>Internally, it&#8217;s the opposite of invisible. It&#8217;s tightly instrumented. Every alert is calibrated to a specific behavioral threshold. Every escalation has a defined trigger and a clear owner. Every client-facing communication is grounded in the same four data sources, aggregated automatically, and surfaced at the moment it&#8217;s operationally useful.</p><p>The gap between those two realities, invisible to the customer, fully instrumented internally, is exactly where the MRR lives.</p><p>Getting there requires treating low-touch as a system design problem, not a cost optimization. The companies that make that shift stop being surprised by churn. The ones that don&#8217;t keep discovering it at renewal time.</p><p></p><p>What&#8217;s worked for you on low-touch? And what cost you the most to learn?</p><p>We read every reply.</p><div><hr></div><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption"><em>Thanks for reading! Let's connect on LinkedIn [<strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-grah/">Simon</a></strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-grah/"> </a>and <strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/soniabouanane/">Sonia</a></strong>]</em></p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div class="pullquote"><p><code>Want to anticipate churn before it happens ? </code></p><div class="directMessage button" data-attrs="{&quot;userId&quot;:466161044,&quot;userName&quot;:&quot;Sonia Bouanane&quot;,&quot;canDm&quot;:null,&quot;dmUpgradeOptions&quot;:null,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true}" data-component-name="DirectMessageToDOM"></div></div><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Why Value Has Become the Only Currency in SaaS]]></title><description><![CDATA[A practical guide for Heads of Ops navigating the new SaaS value standard.]]></description><link>https://soniabouanane.substack.com/p/why-value-has-become-the-only-currency</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://soniabouanane.substack.com/p/why-value-has-become-the-only-currency</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Sonia Bouanane]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 11 Mar 2026 18:12:13 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RCEA!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2bc9ef76-8fc4-4517-92af-bc6b4a3f15ef_3024x4032.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p><em>Reading from France? Catch the French version on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/soniabouanane_saas-usage-growth-activity-7437559660250968064-56fg?utm_source=share&amp;utm_medium=member_desktop&amp;rcm=ACoAAAbBbJAB3oy8hIPMoeiscOuTmaZVvgUKJuI">LinkedIn here</a>.</em></p><p><em>We are <strong>Sonia and Simon, co-founders of <a href="http://www.obviable.com">Obviable</a>. </strong>We help subscription SaaS companies detect weak churn signals before they turn into losses.</em></p><p>You&#8217;ve probably already lived this conversation.</p><p>A tool your team relies on comes up in a budget review. Someone asks what it actually delivers. There&#8217;s a pause. Someone pulls up a usage report. The numbers are underwhelming. Two weeks later, the contract isn&#8217;t renewed.</p><p>This is happening everywhere right now, and it&#8217;s accelerating. The question is no longer whether your stack will get scrutinized. It&#8217;s whether you&#8217;ll be the one driving that conversation, or reacting to it.</p><p>Here&#8217;s what&#8217;s changed, and what to do about it.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RCEA!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2bc9ef76-8fc4-4517-92af-bc6b4a3f15ef_3024x4032.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RCEA!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2bc9ef76-8fc4-4517-92af-bc6b4a3f15ef_3024x4032.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RCEA!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2bc9ef76-8fc4-4517-92af-bc6b4a3f15ef_3024x4032.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RCEA!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2bc9ef76-8fc4-4517-92af-bc6b4a3f15ef_3024x4032.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RCEA!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2bc9ef76-8fc4-4517-92af-bc6b4a3f15ef_3024x4032.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RCEA!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2bc9ef76-8fc4-4517-92af-bc6b4a3f15ef_3024x4032.jpeg" width="1456" height="1092" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2bc9ef76-8fc4-4517-92af-bc6b4a3f15ef_3024x4032.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1092,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1154258,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/i/190643759?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2bc9ef76-8fc4-4517-92af-bc6b4a3f15ef_3024x4032.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RCEA!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2bc9ef76-8fc4-4517-92af-bc6b4a3f15ef_3024x4032.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RCEA!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2bc9ef76-8fc4-4517-92af-bc6b4a3f15ef_3024x4032.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RCEA!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2bc9ef76-8fc4-4517-92af-bc6b4a3f15ef_3024x4032.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RCEA!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2bc9ef76-8fc4-4517-92af-bc6b4a3f15ef_3024x4032.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Photo de Vinay Chauhan</figcaption></figure></div><h3>1. The ROI conversation has moved to your desk</h3><p>Budget scrutiny used to live in finance. It doesn&#8217;t anymore. CFOs have pushed that accountability down &#8212; to you, to your marketing counterpart, to every departmental lead who owns a line item.</p><p>The filter being applied is binary: does this tool generate revenue, or does it demonstrably cut costs? &#8220;We use it a lot&#8221; doesn&#8217;t pass that filter. Neither does &#8220;the team likes it.&#8221;</p><p>What does pass: <strong>hours saved &#215; FTE (Full Time Equivalent) cost = budget reallocated.</strong> Two lines. That&#8217;s the standard now.</p><p><strong>What to do this week:</strong> Pull your full stack and ask one question for each tool : can I quantify its impact in two sentences? If you can&#8217;t, you don&#8217;t have a problem yet, but you will. Build a simple quarterly scorecard: cost of tool, time saved, revenue impact. Run it before someone else does.</p><h3>2. NRR isn't just a company metric &#8212; it's a signal about your stack</h3><p>Net Revenue Retention is the number your leadership team watches. But for a Head of Ops, it carries a more specific question: which tools in your stack are actually contributing to customers staying and expanding, and which ones are invisible in that equation?</p><p>The tools that correlate with retention are the ones worth defending in a budget review. The ones that don&#8217;t show up in that analysis are the ones that will get cut first, and probably should.</p><p><strong>What to do this week:</strong> Map your highest-retention customer segments and look at what they have in common operationally. Which tools are they using consistently? Which ones appear in your churned accounts but not your retained ones? That overlap is your retention stack &#8212; the core you protect, and the baseline you use to evaluate everything else.</p><h3>3. The argument that unlocks budget isn't ROI. It's COI.</h3><p>ROI tells your CFO what you gain. The <strong>Cost of Inaction</strong> tells them what happens if you do nothing &#8212; and in the current risk environment, that&#8217;s often the more powerful number.</p><p>A compliance failure, a security incident, a process breakdown at scale, a high level of churn &#8212; these have hard dollar amounts attached to them. And in many internal budget conversations, quantifying the downside scenario moves faster than projecting an efficiency gain.</p><p><strong>What to do this week:</strong> Add a risk dimension to every business case you build. What does the failure state look like : a fine, a breach, a missed SLA at volume? Put a number on it. ROI gets projects approved. COI makes them urgent. If you&#8217;re trying to move a decision internally, lead with the downside first.</p><h3>4. Usage-based pricing is the most honest conversation you can have with a vendor</h3><p><em>&#8220;</em>When you pay per seat, the link between cost and value is abstract. When you pay per usage, every invoice line is a question: <em>did we actually use this, and did it matter?</em></p><p>This is uncomfortable for vendors whose value is hard to trace. It should be. For the tools that genuinely deliver, usage-based pricing becomes a growth engine : customers expand naturally because they can see what they&#8217;re getting.</p><p><strong>What to do this week:</strong> In your next vendor negotiation, push for outcome-linked or usage-based pricing wherever possible. It shifts accountability for value delivery back to the vendor, where it belongs. Internally, if you&#8217;re influencing pricing decisions, map the behaviors your highest-retention customers share : those are your value signals, and the foundation of a pricing model that actually aligns incentives.</p><h3>5. Your vendors' competitors now include your existing stack</h3><p>Here&#8217;s the question showing up in every buying committee right now:</p><p><em>&#8220;Could the AI features already inside our CRM cover 80% of what this tool does?&#8221;</em></p><p>This is the audit your CFO&#8217;s team is running on your renewals. Specialized tools that were best-in-class two years ago are now being compared (in real time, by AI assistants) against native features in Salesforce, HubSpot, or Microsoft 365.</p><p>Being slightly better than a built-in feature is not a defensible position. The only tools that survive this comparison are the ones solving high-complexity, high-stakes problems where &#8220;good enough&#8221; has real consequences.</p><p><strong>What to do this week:</strong> Run that 80% audit yourself, on your own stack, before your next budget cycle. For each tool, ask: what would we lose if we replaced this with what we already own? You&#8217;ll find dead weight faster than any vendor review. And when evaluating new tools, stop accepting demo-environment comparisons : ask vendors to show you what they do that your current stack genuinely cannot.</p><h3>The question worth asking about every tool in your stack</h3><p><strong>If this product disappeared tomorrow, would the business actually feel the impact?</strong></p><p>Ask it about every tool you&#8217;re renewing. Ask it about every tool your team is requesting. The ones where the answer is unclear are your highest risk : both for cuts if you&#8217;re buying, and for churn if you&#8217;re selling.</p><p>You don&#8217;t need to wait for your CFO to run this audit. The Heads of Ops who will navigate the next 18 months well are the ones who ran it first, built the internal case proactively, and walked into budget conversations already holding the answers.</p><p>That&#8217;s the only three-slide summary that matters right now.</p><p></p><div><hr></div><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption"><em>Thanks for reading! Let's connect on LinkedIn [<strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-grah/">Simon</a></strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-grah/"> </a>and <strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/soniabouanane/">Sonia</a></strong>]</em></p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div class="pullquote"><p><code>Want to anticipate churn before it happens ? </code></p><div class="directMessage button" data-attrs="{&quot;userId&quot;:466161044,&quot;userName&quot;:&quot;Sonia Bouanane&quot;,&quot;canDm&quot;:null,&quot;dmUpgradeOptions&quot;:null,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true}" data-component-name="DirectMessageToDOM"></div></div><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Why your churn alerts fail to protect your revenue.]]></title><description><![CDATA[Fix the foundations before you fix the forecast.]]></description><link>https://soniabouanane.substack.com/p/why-your-churn-alerts-fail-to-protect</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://soniabouanane.substack.com/p/why-your-churn-alerts-fail-to-protect</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Sonia Bouanane]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 04 Mar 2026 16:35:16 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cPvU!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff4800536-89fe-4302-b682-35611749776c_4032x3024.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p><em>Reading from France? Catch the French version on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/soniabouanane_retention-saas-churn-activity-7435007965679677440-_Ayf?utm_source=share&amp;utm_medium=member_desktop&amp;rcm=ACoAAAbBbJAB3oy8hIPMoeiscOuTmaZVvgUKJuI">LinkedIn here</a>.</em></p><p><em>We are <strong>Sonia and Simon, co-founders of <a href="http://www.obviable.com">Obviable</a>. </strong>We help subscription SaaS companies detect weak churn signals before they turn into losses.</em></p><p>You have reactivation campaigns. You have alerts. You probably have a dashboard somewhere showing a monthly churn rate.</p><p>And yet, when a customer leaves, nobody in the organization really saw it coming. And nobody knows exactly who owned that relationship.</p><p>I&#8217;ve seen this pattern repeatedly, across B2B and B2C SaaS companies at very different stages. The retention problem is rarely a data problem. It&#8217;s a process, ownership, and timing problem.</p><p>Here&#8217;s what I&#8217;ve learned about what it actually takes to fix it.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cPvU!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff4800536-89fe-4302-b682-35611749776c_4032x3024.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cPvU!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff4800536-89fe-4302-b682-35611749776c_4032x3024.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cPvU!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff4800536-89fe-4302-b682-35611749776c_4032x3024.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cPvU!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff4800536-89fe-4302-b682-35611749776c_4032x3024.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cPvU!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff4800536-89fe-4302-b682-35611749776c_4032x3024.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cPvU!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff4800536-89fe-4302-b682-35611749776c_4032x3024.jpeg" width="1456" height="1092" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f4800536-89fe-4302-b682-35611749776c_4032x3024.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1092,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:747101,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/i/189892827?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff4800536-89fe-4302-b682-35611749776c_4032x3024.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cPvU!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff4800536-89fe-4302-b682-35611749776c_4032x3024.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cPvU!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff4800536-89fe-4302-b682-35611749776c_4032x3024.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cPvU!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff4800536-89fe-4302-b682-35611749776c_4032x3024.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cPvU!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff4800536-89fe-4302-b682-35611749776c_4032x3024.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Caption Nidhi Shah</figcaption></figure></div><p></p><h3>Problem #1: Everyone measures churn. Nobody owns it.</h3><p>One of the first things I hear when talking to prospects is a version of this: <em>&#8220;We all look at the churn number. But honestly, nobody really owns it.&#8221;</em></p><p>Churn ends up split between product, marketing, CRM, and finance. Which means, in practice, nobody is truly accountable for it.</p><p>The conversation looks different depending on the model, but the dysfunction is always the same.</p><p><strong>In B2C</strong>, it sounds like this: Product says it&#8217;s an adoption problem. Marketing says it&#8217;s a segmentation problem. CRM says campaigns go out too late. Finance says LTV is too low.</p><p><strong>In B2B</strong>, it sounds like this: Customer Success says they weren&#8217;t looped in early enough. Sales says the account was mis-sold from the start. Product says the feature gap is on the roadmap. Finance says the contract terms didn&#8217;t allow for intervention.</p><p>Different conversations. Same outcome: the root cause is never owned, and the customer leaves anyway.</p><p>The fix is less glamorous than a new model or a new tool: appoint a single retention owner, with a clear scope, dedicated metrics, and the authority to arbitrate between product, CRM, and support. Without that, every initiative stays fragmented and nothing gets resolved at the root.</p><h3>Problem #2: Every churn is treated the same way.</h3><p>Something we observe consistently: teams apply the same reactivation workflow to every departure. Same email sequence. Same discount offer. Same timing.</p><p>But not every cancellation deserves the same response. Or any response at all.</p><p>Three distinct types of departure coexist in any customer base, each requiring a fundamentally different playbook:</p><p><strong>Hard churn.</strong> Active, voluntary cancellation. The customer made a deliberate decision to leave. By the time you see it, the decision is usually already irreversible. Win-back campaigns post-cancellation have very low success rates. The only intervention that works happens upstream, before they&#8217;ve mentally moved on.</p><p><strong>Soft churn.</strong> Payment stops, but the account is never formally closed, despite follow-up emails, push notifications, and SMS. This one needs a fast, structured, multichannel recovery process, but also a real investigation into causes: technical friction, declining perceived value, or simply a forgotten subscription?</p><p><strong>Structural churn.</strong> The customer exits your target entirely. In B2C: a user whose life situation changes, a freelancer who stops their activity. In B2B: a company that pivots, gets acquired, or simply goes out of business. This churn is largely inevitable. I&#8217;ve seen teams spend significant budget trying to retain these accounts, and it almost never works. The right move is to anticipate it, either to offer a transition product, or simply to stop burning CRM budget on a lost cause.</p><p>Running all three through the same workflow systematically misallocates your ops resources.</p><h3>Problem #3: You're intervening too late.</h3><p>This is probably the pattern I encounter most often. And the one that costs the most.</p><p>The moment a team detects an at-risk customer is very often the moment that customer has already made their decision.</p><p>Cancellation is a deferred action. Between the moment a customer mentally decides to leave and the moment they formalize it, clicking &#8220;close my account&#8221; in B2C or simply not renewing the contract in B2B, weeks, sometimes months, can pass. They&#8217;ve already tested an alternative. They may have already migrated. The decision is done.</p><p>Any retention campaign triggered after that point has a near-zero success rate. And sometimes produces the opposite effect, reminding the customer they still haven&#8217;t finalized their cancellation.</p><p>What works is shifting the detection point upstream of renewal dates: typically two weeks before each billing cycle in B2C, one to two months before contract expiry in B2B. That&#8217;s the window where intervention still has a chance to change the outcome. Not after.</p><h3>Problem #4: Retention actions are generic.</h3><p><em>&#8220;We noticed you&#8217;ve been less active lately.&#8221;</em></p><p>Every time I show this message to a prospect, they recognize it immediately, because they&#8217;ve received it themselves from three other tools that week. It addresses no real friction, proposes no concrete solution, and demonstrates zero understanding of the individual customer, whether they&#8217;re a consumer managing a personal subscription or a procurement manager renewing a six-figure contract.</p><p>What we consistently find when working with customers: the accounts most worth saving already know you&#8217;ve noticed nothing. The message confirms it.</p><p>For a retention action to actually work, it needs to be built on a genuine understanding of why this specific account is at risk. Which means crossing four dimensions simultaneously:</p><p><strong>Product usage.</strong> Which feature dropped off? When? Was it a sudden break or a gradual erosion over three months?</p><p><strong>Billing.</strong> Were there payment incidents? A recent downgrade? In B2B, a reduction in seat count that signals budget pressure before it becomes a formal conversation?</p><p><strong>CRM.</strong> What&#8217;s this customer&#8217;s history? In B2C, did they come in on a promotional offer whose effect is now fading? In B2B, has there been a change of champion or a quiet reorganization on their side?</p><p><strong>Support.</strong> Have they opened tickets recently? On what friction? In our experience, a cluster of unresolved support contacts is one of the most reliable leading indicators of imminent churn, and one of the least exploited signals, in both B2B and B2C.</p><p>This is where an AI agent changes the game. The moment an alert fires, it automatically crosses all four sources and produces a per-account briefing: what changed, why it&#8217;s a risk, which lever to pull first. In B2C, that briefing feeds directly into automated CRM workflows at scale. In B2B, it lands in the Customer Success rep&#8217;s queue, giving them exactly what they need to walk into a save conversation prepared, not improvising.</p><h3>What This Means in Practice</h3><p>I&#8217;ll be honest: there&#8217;s no shortcut here. Building a retention operation that actually works means laying five foundations, in the right order. Each one unlocks the next.</p><p><strong>1. Start with your data, not your model.</strong> Before any campaign or model: make sure your customer data is actually trustworthy. Duplicates, incomplete histories, miscategorized statuses. These feel minor until they distort your intervention priorities entirely. Every time we start a new engagement, we find something broken here. Every single time.</p><p><strong>2. Build a behavioral view of each account.</strong> Not raw usage metrics, but indicators that describe how each customer actually uses the product at key moments in their lifecycle. In B2C, that means feature adoption and engagement velocity. In B2B, it also means team-level usage, seat activation, and depth of product integration.</p><p><strong>3. Time your detection to individual renewal cycles, not global calendars.</strong> Every customer has their own billing date or contract expiry. Scoring should trigger individually: two weeks before renewal in B2C, one to two months before contract end in B2B. Not in a monthly global batch. And structural churn must be excluded from the intervention perimeter, or you&#8217;ll waste resources chasing departures you can&#8217;t prevent.</p><p><strong>4. Use AI to understand what just happened on each account.</strong> An alert tells you a customer is at risk. It doesn&#8217;t tell you why, or what changed in the last few weeks that tipped the balance. Using AI here is simply good practice: it scans recent product events, billing activity, CRM updates, and support interactions to reconstruct the account&#8217;s recent story. The result is a briefing that&#8217;s actually relevant to the situation at hand, not a static snapshot. In B2C, it feeds personalized campaign triggers at scale. In B2B, it walks Customer Success into the conversation already knowing what&#8217;s going on.</p><p><strong>5. Integrate activation natively into your CRM.</strong> A score that lives outside the tools your team actually uses every day will not be used. The goal is simple: every alert translates into a personalized action at the right moment, triggered automatically, with no manual re-entry and no interpretation lag.</p><h3>Five Questions Worth Sitting With</h3><p>Rather than a checklist, I&#8217;d invite you to sit with these honestly:</p><ul><li><p>Who owns retention in your org, really, with clear metrics and an actual mandate?</p></li><li><p>Do your processes distinguish between hard churn, soft churn, and structural churn, or does every departure go through the same workflow?</p></li><li><p>When do you trigger retention actions, before or after the decision has been made?</p></li><li><p>Do your campaigns address a real, identified friction, or are they sending a message that nobody asked for?</p></li><li><p>Do you have a unified view of the customer when you intervene, usage, billing, support, CRM, or are you working from a partial picture?</p></li></ul><p>Retention isn&#8217;t a budget problem. It&#8217;s a process problem. And like all process problems, it doesn&#8217;t get solved by adding more tools. It gets solved by getting the fundamentals right first.</p><p></p><div><hr></div><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption"><em>Thanks for reading! Let's connect on LinkedIn [<strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-grah/">Simon</a></strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-grah/"> </a>and <strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/soniabouanane/">Sonia</a></strong>]</em></p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div class="pullquote"><p><code>Want to anticipate churn before it happens ? </code></p><div class="directMessage button" data-attrs="{&quot;userId&quot;:466161044,&quot;userName&quot;:&quot;Sonia Bouanane&quot;,&quot;canDm&quot;:null,&quot;dmUpgradeOptions&quot;:null,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true}" data-component-name="DirectMessageToDOM"></div></div><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Churn is a triple penalty. Are you paying it?]]></title><description><![CDATA[It is often treated as an isolated "Customer" issue. This is a strategic mistake.]]></description><link>https://soniabouanane.substack.com/p/churn-is-a-triple-penalty-are-you</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://soniabouanane.substack.com/p/churn-is-a-triple-penalty-are-you</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Sonia Bouanane]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 25 Feb 2026 12:18:04 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uH6a!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa555dff5-42ab-4848-aec6-f81ca5085ad9_1266x701.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p><em>Reading from France? Catch the French version <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/soniabouanane_saas-usage-customersuccess-activity-7432397411269988352-lTzI?utm_source=share&amp;utm_medium=member_desktop&amp;rcm=ACoAAAbBbJAB3oy8hIPMoeiscOuTmaZVvgUKJuI">on LinkedIn here.</a> &#119819;&#119838; &#119836;&#119841;&#119854;&#119851;&#119847;, &#119836;'&#119838;&#119852;&#119853; &#119845;&#119834; &#119853;&#119851;&#119842;&#119849;&#119845;&#119838; &#119849;&#119838;&#119842;&#119847;&#119838; &#127467;&#127479;</em></p><p><em>We are <strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/soniabouanane/">Sonia </a>and <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-grah/">Simon</a>, co-founders of <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/obviable/?viewAsMember=true">Obviable</a>. </strong>We help subscription SaaS companies detect weak churn signals before they turn into losses.</em></p><p>Churn cuts across the entire organization and puts sustainable growth at risk.</p><p>Here is why its impact is widely underestimated:</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uH6a!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa555dff5-42ab-4848-aec6-f81ca5085ad9_1266x701.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uH6a!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa555dff5-42ab-4848-aec6-f81ca5085ad9_1266x701.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uH6a!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa555dff5-42ab-4848-aec6-f81ca5085ad9_1266x701.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uH6a!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa555dff5-42ab-4848-aec6-f81ca5085ad9_1266x701.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uH6a!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa555dff5-42ab-4848-aec6-f81ca5085ad9_1266x701.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uH6a!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa555dff5-42ab-4848-aec6-f81ca5085ad9_1266x701.png" width="1266" height="701" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a555dff5-42ab-4848-aec6-f81ca5085ad9_1266x701.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:701,&quot;width&quot;:1266,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:65741,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/i/189123489?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa555dff5-42ab-4848-aec6-f81ca5085ad9_1266x701.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uH6a!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa555dff5-42ab-4848-aec6-f81ca5085ad9_1266x701.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uH6a!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa555dff5-42ab-4848-aec6-f81ca5085ad9_1266x701.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uH6a!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa555dff5-42ab-4848-aec6-f81ca5085ad9_1266x701.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uH6a!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa555dff5-42ab-4848-aec6-f81ca5085ad9_1266x701.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><h3>1.  Immediate MRR Hemorrhage</h3><p>In SaaS, valuation is built on revenue predictability. When a customer leaves, it isn&#8217;t just one less line on a dashboard. It&#8217;s the abrupt end of a cumulative trajectory.</p><p>The Harvard Business Review consistently highlights that retention is one of the most powerful profitability levers&#8212;often far ahead of acquisition.</p><h3>2.  Destruction of Expansion Potential</h3><p>A customer isn&#8217;t worth their MRR at any given moment. They are worth their <strong>Lifetime Value</strong>. Research by Frederick Reichheld at Bain &amp; Company shows that a 5% increase in retention can boost profits by 25% to 95%.</p><p>Why? Because a customer who stays:</p><ul><li><p>Adopts more features,</p></li><li><p>Moves upmarket (upsells),</p></li><li><p>Becomes more profitable over time. Every churned account also erases future expansion revenue.</p></li></ul><h3>3. The CAC Scissor Effect</h3><p>It&#8217;s mechanical: the more customers you lose, the more you must sign just to stay on track. </p><p>According to McKinsey &amp; Company, B2B acquisition costs have surged due to channel saturation. You end up compensating for departures with increasingly expensive acquisition. You are mobilizing more resources... only to move slower.</p><h3>The Real Issue: Predictive Orchestration</h3><p>The decision to leave isn&#8217;t made on the day of cancellation. It starts much earlier: a drop in usage, non-adoption of key features, or gradual disengagement.</p><p>Retention isn&#8217;t just a post-mortem observation. It is a cross-functional steering process:</p><p>&#129309; <strong>Customer Success</strong>: When should you intervene to create value, rather than just managing an alert?</p><p>&#128227; <strong>Marketing</strong>: How do you trigger the right levers at the right time?</p><p>&#129516; <strong>Data</strong>: Which signals are truly predictive&#8212;and explainable?</p><p>&#128736; <strong>Product</strong>: Which features create long-term stickiness?</p><p>Measuring churn is vital. But the real competitive advantage lies in the ability to <strong>anticipate</strong> it.</p><p>Does this resonate with you? Subscribe for more insights.</p><div><hr></div><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption"><em>Thanks for reading! Let's connect on LinkedIn [<strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-grah/">Simon</a></strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-grah/"> </a>and <strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/soniabouanane/">Sonia</a></strong>]</em></p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div class="pullquote"><p><code>Want to anticipate churn before it happens ? </code></p><div class="directMessage button" data-attrs="{&quot;userId&quot;:466161044,&quot;userName&quot;:&quot;Sonia Bouanane&quot;,&quot;canDm&quot;:null,&quot;dmUpgradeOptions&quot;:null,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true}" data-component-name="DirectMessageToDOM"></div></div><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[6 Analytical Biases Ruining Your Dashboards—and How to Fix Them.]]></title><description><![CDATA[6 Analytical Biases Ruining Your Dashboards&#8212;and How to Fix Them.]]></description><link>https://soniabouanane.substack.com/p/6-analytical-biases-ruining-your</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://soniabouanane.substack.com/p/6-analytical-biases-ruining-your</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Sonia Bouanane]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 25 Feb 2026 09:50:54 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BCk1!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4fc5b0ff-5b24-4f77-8947-f1d6ed06c696_3456x5184.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p><em>Reading from France? Catch the summarized version in French <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/posts/simon-grah_votre-churn-est-probablement-faux-voici-activity-7430287573731864576-FSuG?utm_source=share&amp;utm_medium=member_desktop&amp;rcm=ACoAAAbBbJAB3oy8hIPMoeiscOuTmaZVvgUKJuI">on LinkedIn here.</a></em></p><p><em>We are <strong>Sonia and Simon, co-founders of <a href="http://www.obviable.com">Obviable</a>. </strong>We help subscription SaaS companies detect weak churn signals before they turn into losses.</em></p><p>Churn is the &#8220;silent killer&#8221; of SaaS. Everyone tracks it, but few measure it correctly. If your dashboard shows 3%, but your reality feels more volatile, you&#8217;re likely falling for one of these traps.</p><p>Here is how to clean up your data and finally see the truth.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BCk1!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4fc5b0ff-5b24-4f77-8947-f1d6ed06c696_3456x5184.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BCk1!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4fc5b0ff-5b24-4f77-8947-f1d6ed06c696_3456x5184.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BCk1!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4fc5b0ff-5b24-4f77-8947-f1d6ed06c696_3456x5184.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BCk1!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4fc5b0ff-5b24-4f77-8947-f1d6ed06c696_3456x5184.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BCk1!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4fc5b0ff-5b24-4f77-8947-f1d6ed06c696_3456x5184.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BCk1!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4fc5b0ff-5b24-4f77-8947-f1d6ed06c696_3456x5184.jpeg" width="708" height="472.1620879120879" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4fc5b0ff-5b24-4f77-8947-f1d6ed06c696_3456x5184.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:971,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:708,&quot;bytes&quot;:4179672,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/i/189008280?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4fc5b0ff-5b24-4f77-8947-f1d6ed06c696_3456x5184.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BCk1!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4fc5b0ff-5b24-4f77-8947-f1d6ed06c696_3456x5184.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BCk1!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4fc5b0ff-5b24-4f77-8947-f1d6ed06c696_3456x5184.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BCk1!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4fc5b0ff-5b24-4f77-8947-f1d6ed06c696_3456x5184.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BCk1!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4fc5b0ff-5b24-4f77-8947-f1d6ed06c696_3456x5184.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Photo Emre Can Acer</figcaption></figure></div><h3>1. The Calendar Year Trap</h3><p><strong>The Problem:</strong> Measuring churn from the 1st to the 31st of the month when customers subscribe on the 15th. </p><p><strong>The Bias:</strong> A time window disconnected from your users' actual lifecycle creates noise. </p><p><strong>The Fix:</strong> Align your measurement with the <strong>dominant renewal cycle</strong>. Use cohort analysis based on the contract anniversary date.</p><h3>2. Asymmetric Comparisons</h3><p> <strong>The Problem:</strong> Comparing a 5% churn rate on monthly plans with a 5% rate on annual plans. </p><p><strong>The Bias:</strong> An annual customer only has one "opportunity" to churn per year, versus 12 for the monthly user. </p><p><strong>The Fix:</strong> <strong>Standardize.</strong> Convert everything to a common denominator (usually the Annualized Abandonment Rate) to compare apples to apples.</p><h3>3. The Seasonality Illusion</h3><p><strong>The Problem:</strong> Celebrating a churn drop in December when your industry naturally slows down. </p><p><strong>The Bias:</strong> Confusing a market trend with the impact of your product or marketing updates. </p><p><strong>The Fix:</strong> Use <strong>de-seasonalized data</strong>. Compare performance <strong>Year-over-Year (YoY)</strong> rather than Month-over-Month (MoM) to isolate the real signal.</p><h3>4. Mismanaged Reactivations</h3><p><strong>The Problem:</strong> Counting a returning customer (after 15 days) as "New Biz" instead of a reactivation. </p><p><strong>The Bias:</strong> You artificially inflate both your Churn AND your Acquisition metrics. </p><p><strong>The Fix:</strong> Consolidate active periods at the account level. A customer&#8217;s lifespan runs <strong>from the first day to the end of the last continuous session</strong>.</p><h3>5. The Noise of "Free Riders" </h3><p><strong>The Problem:</strong> Including free trials, partners, or "Friends &amp; Family" accounts in your churn calculations. </p><p><strong>The Bias:</strong> This dilutes your <strong>pure financial retention</strong>. </p><p><strong>The Fix:</strong> Exclude anything that doesn't generate real revenue. Churn is a metric of economic health, not just user volume.</p><h3>6. Dirty Data (Garbage In, Garbage Out)</h3><p><strong>The Problem:</strong> Duplicate accounts, end dates before start dates, or missing IDs. </p><p><strong>The Bias:</strong> A 5% error in your logs can invalidate your entire retention strategy. </p><p><strong>The Fix:</strong> Implement strict <strong>QA (Quality Assurance) rules</strong> upstream. If the data doesn't meet logical constraints, it shouldn't enter the dashboard.</p><p></p><div><hr></div><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://soniabouanane.substack.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption"><em>Thanks for reading! Let's connect on LinkedIn [<strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-grah/">Simon</a></strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-grah/"> </a>and <strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/soniabouanane/">Sonia</a></strong>]</em></p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div class="pullquote"><p><code>Want to anticipate churn before it happens ? </code></p><div class="directMessage button" data-attrs="{&quot;userId&quot;:466161044,&quot;userName&quot;:&quot;Sonia Bouanane&quot;,&quot;canDm&quot;:null,&quot;dmUpgradeOptions&quot;:null,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true}" data-component-name="DirectMessageToDOM"></div></div><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item></channel></rss>